Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 94396.264839 99516.859899 104631.945671 110121.455265 115842.466083 121625.444668 127909.328903
2025-06-01 86703.939647 94607.283711 102718.052121 111653.086408 121208.914246 131111.373139 142137.730641
2025-06-08 80043.601142 89780.110462 99989.119026 111469.575161 123997.585563 137231.224596 152244.267138
2025-06-15 76124.902488 87358.559525 99348.052796 113059.767602 128269.187445 144584.839797 163371.935310
2025-06-22 72500.199951 84895.151747 98331.942299 113926.484016 131471.146036 150543.259864 172785.760571
2025-06-29 68962.493020 82256.557633 96874.157896 114066.383515 133656.432912 155206.013985 180623.806818
2025-07-06 65820.542105 79861.302601 95503.495772 114126.600502 135594.877337 159465.772960 187910.410716
2025-07-13 64141.286126 79025.336807 95802.366030 115994.478542 139511.769892 165909.625373 197648.052395
2025-07-20 62483.506420 78106.299685 95911.582043 117560.519070 143017.502921 171845.118336 206793.127788
2025-07-27 60614.897255 76837.537746 95524.056321 118467.128671 145693.765680 176784.011648 214771.552002
2025-08-03 58448.963674 75115.041144 94512.969135 118556.704571 147343.582400 180481.690160 221277.782229
2025-08-10 56621.073109 73722.433110 93824.494661 118965.699356 149318.874028 184525.397044 228174.409165
2025-08-17 54717.242732 72192.025805 92938.909309 119121.921978 150998.311973 188251.834258 234763.590725
2025-08-24 53528.192670 71500.546640 93037.241747 120445.539298 154072.373266 193645.687123 243372.522072
2025-08-31 51619.220201 69839.099911 91883.159778 120180.191759 155173.708862 196649.158178 249109.057250
2025-09-07 50777.110611 69488.088904 92320.484316 121854.216092 158633.455037 202498.757543 258301.405241
2025-09-14 49628.682319 68701.075723 92174.984266 122771.517836 161141.024186 207188.296359 266101.665471
2025-09-21 48187.216122 67486.770934 91447.193954 122919.323782 162664.275375 210659.894804 272416.520068
2025-09-28 46784.588557 66276.736737 90683.057693 122983.114247 164052.881682 213948.901266 278505.733649
2025-10-05 46311.618247 66265.960794 91436.978186 124967.588667 167854.638376 220231.037053 288319.636174
2025-10-12 45726.309836 66082.217102 91949.455592 126631.132139 171249.715132 226021.211581 297556.136773
2025-10-19 44871.692397 65509.653202 91932.976992 127594.077009 173744.659286 230691.694289 305418.806614
2025-10-26 43693.518783 64465.968256 91269.076693 127689.214188 175109.645301 233936.293857 311502.756835